Making Sense of the Polls

While a lot of the post-DNC Convention news has focused on Kerry's apparent lack of a bounce in the polls as a result, I think it's important to look at the internals in the polls, as this article in the Washington Post does. Looking at the fact that Kerry is now seen as a potentially better commander-in-chief than Bush, as well as the increasing enthusiasm and stability of the support of his base are all very good indicators for the Kerry camp. And as little of a change might have occurred for Kerry, it's good to remember that people have had four years to formulate an opinion about Bush, so one can only assume that regardless of the outcome of the upcoming RNC convention, it is hard to imagine that Bush's numbers will change much as a result.

For what it's worth, a neighbor saw Lawrence O'Donnell on TV a couple of days ago, who was saying that he had seen some internal polls from the White House and that the numbers looked very bad for Bush. Also that the toughest job in DC right now would be getting the President re-elected. But this is a second-hand quote from a Democrat (who is nonetheless well-versed in Presidential politics), so take it with a grain of salt.